North Korea continues Sabre Rattling

North Korea launched a few more short-range missiles today. In what is another provocative act in a string of provocative acts (rocket launch under the guise of launching a space satellite, nuclear test, withdrawal from the 6 party talks, withdrawing from the 1953 armistice agreement with South Korea), North Korea sent the world a resounding message: pay attention to me!

Now, I’m sure many people think that North Korea is an ‘irrational’ actor, but I beg to differ. North Korea is playing the only game it knows how, and is doing it well. Not only has the DPRK gotten away with testing two nuclear devices, but it continues to flout international law and security council resolutions, and there’s also the question of proliferation. (Although I’d hate to be the recipient of North Korean nuclear or missile technology – not exactly worth the cost. Better to get it from someone a bit more reliable!)

So what more will North Korea get? I’m willing to bet that they’re not done provoking the US – I’d wager there’ll be a few more longer-range missile tests, and possibly another nuclear test. (My best guess as to when? G8 leaders’ summit coming up next week.)

The question really becomes what does North Korea want. The answer is simple: to be recognized as a nuclear state. Will North Korea get what it is gambling everything for, or will it all blow up in its face?

LTTE: Where next?

As the war in Sri Lanka draws to a close, a new chapter opens for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Their struggle will evolve from one fighting for a Tamil homeland to something different, but they are unlikely to disappear, even if the government of Sri Lanka succeeds in re-taking all of the rebel’s territory.

Take Tuesday’s attack: the LTTE will likely continue to use terrorism as a tactic, and may in fact evolve into an entirely terrorist organization, instead of the ethno-nationalist separatist group that some describe them as.

The one thing that the LTTE has not done (for the most part) is execute terrorist attacks on foreign soil. However, as the situation gets more dire for them, they may in fact be motivated to start executing international terrorist attacks in order to gain support for their cause. Likely targets? India, Sri Lanka, and major supporting nations – among which Canada could be ranked.

Afghanistan 2.0

President Obama was in Ottawa this week for a very short visit. He met with the Governor General, Prime Minister Harper and the leader of the opposition, Michael Ignatieff. The question on everyone’s mind (okay, maybe just mine) is: what did they say about Afghanistan?

Canada is expected to draw down its mission in Afghanistan by 2011, which means that the actual end of operations will likely be much sooner, given the amount of equipment that will need to be out of the country to meet the Government’s stated close of business deadline.

However, the U.S. is getting ready to launch a surge of soldiers into Afghanistan – and Canada is getting ready to leave. Personally, I don’t think that’s actually going to happen. I think we can expect a new commitment from Canada to stay in Afghanistan past 2011, and it will likely come after the next election, which by my clock is due sometime between June and September.

Operational Stress Disorder and the Canadian Forces

The Canadian mission in Afghanistan has raised some rather serious and disturbing questions about whether or not Canadian soldiers are getting the appropriate mental health care upon return from combat duty. Operational stress injuries can include anxiety disorder, disordered sleeping, substance abuse, post-traumatic stress disorder, and depression, to name just a few. This is a poorly understood field, and one that receives significantly less attention that other forms of combat injury. The office of the Ombudsman recommended in 2002 a variety of measures to be taken, the status of which remain unknown. In the US, incidents of operational stress injury have been linked to domestic violence and murder.

As a former member of the Canadian Forces, it was my experience that mental health issues were not tackled adequately. Where physical injuries received exceptional support (within the confines of the Canadian medical system), mental health issues were marginalized, downplayed, or outright ignored. Significant work needs to be done to give soldiers access to mental health resources, and to de-stigmatize mental health issues within the Canadian Forces.

However, without significant research into this area, there will be little traditional mental health care workers will be able to do. Mental health is a much neglected and marginalized field of study, and combine it with military operations, and it becomes a serious subspecialty. As more Canadian soldiers return from active combat, I sincerely hope that we don’t see an increase in domestic violence and other manifestations of operational stress injury, but I suspect that will, in fact, be the case. Is Canada prepared to deal with it?

27 June 2009 Update: It looks like the Globe and Mail has picked up on this, and that the CF will at least pretend to do something about it.

On Obama’s Foreign Policy

I was going to post this on Tuesday, but I thought it would be too much rain on Obama’s parade. Now, I don’t mean to be a downer, but I think it’s important to discuss the constraints on Obama’s foreign policy. As much as he wants change, it might be a bit difficult. Here’s an issue-by-issue analysis.

Issue: Iranian nuclear ambitions. Constraints: regional geopolitics. Obama’s position: open to dialogue. Likely outcome: some discussion, but much of the same. Reason: Iran is unlikely to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and Israel is unlikely to become okay with a nuclear Iran. Watch for Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities with US complicity.

Issue: Iraq. Constraints: domestic issues. Obama’s position: timed withdrawal. Likely outcome: A slower withdrawal than people expect. Reason: As US troops withdraw from Iraq, the sectarian violence that has been plaguing the country will continue, and Iraqi security forces are not ready to take over. Expect the US to withdraw some troops, but keep a good number.

Issue: Afghanistan. Constraints: Taliban insurgency and Pakistan border issues. Obama’s position: prosecuting a successful, and brief, war in Afghanistan. Likely outcome: A surge, and a long war. Reason: The conflict in Afghanistan is intractible, and with allies like Canada set to withdraw their troops, there will be more work for the US. The Pakistan issue is massive, and isn’t currently being addressed. Watch for a long war, and increased pressure, and possible troop deployments in Pakistan.

Issue: Pakistan. Constraints: Domestic instability, a rogue security service, and a rough neighbourhood. Obama’s position: unknown. Likely outcome: State failure and increased insurgent activity in Afghanistan and India. Reason: The ISI and other groups are running wild through Pakistan, which lacks the institutions to make a successful comeback. The US will put pressure on Pakistan, and it will be unable to constrain the many disparate groups pressing for its disintegration. Watch for a very unstable neighbourhood, with increasing intervention on the borders of Pakistan, and perhaps into Pakistan proper.

Essentially, we’re not going to see huge change in Obama’s foreign policy. It’s too bad, but there are too many constraints, both domestic and international, on his policies and programs. Interesting areas to watch will be Cuba, Russia and Iran. Let’s hope for the best!