There’s been a fair bit of media discussion the “new” Iranian revolution – I think it’s important to keep a few things in mind:
- Iran, while having democratic elections for president, is controlled by a small cadre of people who firmly control the security architecture
- Any changes that might take place in Iran are likely to be slow in coming
- Any interference from the US will be played up by Ahmadinejad and his supporters and will be counterproductive
However, the thing that worries me is that Iran is more volatile now than ever before. The Iranians looking to acquire nuclear weapons could see these demonstrations as a threat and step up their game for two reasons: it’s a popular move that will support the regime, or in case (as they might see it), western powers think now is a good time for some ‘interference’.
Either way, it throws a wrench into the ‘nuclear Iran’ scenarios.
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