2009′s Failed States Index

I love this time of year, when Foreign Policy magazine releases its failed states index. It is probably the best index out there, and possibly the most well-read warning of state failure. A few highlights:

- much of the index this year focused on how fragile states will be effected by the global economic crisis (my favourites include Pakistan, Sudan and Iran)
- This year they added an interactive map that helps you see, in a nutshell, how bad the situation is in any part of the world.
- What did they miss? Mexico. Mexico is the state that is quietly failing, but doesn’t get talked about very much. I’m working on an article for a journal on the subject, so I might share a few of my findings here, because I think they need to be said.

Iranian Revolution Redux?

There’s been a fair bit of media discussion the “new” Iranian revolution – I think it’s important to keep a few things in mind:

- Iran, while having democratic elections for president, is controlled by a small cadre of people who firmly control the security architecture
- Any changes that might take place in Iran are likely to be slow in coming
- Any interference from the US will be played up by Ahmadinejad and his supporters and will be counterproductive

However, the thing that worries me is that Iran is more volatile now than ever before. The Iranians looking to acquire nuclear weapons could see these demonstrations as a threat and step up their game for two reasons: it’s a popular move that will support the regime, or in case (as they might see it), western powers think now is a good time for some ‘interference’.

Either way, it throws a wrench into the ‘nuclear Iran’ scenarios.