I was going to post this on Tuesday, but I thought it would be too much rain on Obama’s parade. Now, I don’t mean to be a downer, but I think it’s important to discuss the constraints on Obama’s foreign policy. As much as he wants change, it might be a bit difficult. Here’s an issue-by-issue analysis.
Issue: Iranian nuclear ambitions. Constraints: regional geopolitics. Obama’s position: open to dialogue. Likely outcome: some discussion, but much of the same. Reason: Iran is unlikely to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and Israel is unlikely to become okay with a nuclear Iran. Watch for Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities with US complicity.
Issue: Iraq. Constraints: domestic issues. Obama’s position: timed withdrawal. Likely outcome: A slower withdrawal than people expect. Reason: As US troops withdraw from Iraq, the sectarian violence that has been plaguing the country will continue, and Iraqi security forces are not ready to take over. Expect the US to withdraw some troops, but keep a good number.
Issue: Afghanistan. Constraints: Taliban insurgency and Pakistan border issues. Obama’s position: prosecuting a successful, and brief, war in Afghanistan. Likely outcome: A surge, and a long war. Reason: The conflict in Afghanistan is intractible, and with allies like Canada set to withdraw their troops, there will be more work for the US. The Pakistan issue is massive, and isn’t currently being addressed. Watch for a long war, and increased pressure, and possible troop deployments in Pakistan.
Issue: Pakistan. Constraints: Domestic instability, a rogue security service, and a rough neighbourhood. Obama’s position: unknown. Likely outcome: State failure and increased insurgent activity in Afghanistan and India. Reason: The ISI and other groups are running wild through Pakistan, which lacks the institutions to make a successful comeback. The US will put pressure on Pakistan, and it will be unable to constrain the many disparate groups pressing for its disintegration. Watch for a very unstable neighbourhood, with increasing intervention on the borders of Pakistan, and perhaps into Pakistan proper.
Essentially, we’re not going to see huge change in Obama’s foreign policy. It’s too bad, but there are too many constraints, both domestic and international, on his policies and programs. Interesting areas to watch will be Cuba, Russia and Iran. Let’s hope for the best!
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