Economic Recovery?

The end of the year has brought about a few retrospectives on the economy, and a few forward-looking articles as well.

The question I have is this: how much longer will the actual recession last for Canadians? Take, for example, unemployment levels: Canada is around 8.5%, while the US is around 10%. Historically, Canada has a higher unemployment rate than the US.

While Canada fared better in terms of unemployment than the US did during the recession, the US recovery is likely to be much more dramatic than the Canadian one, particularly given that the Canadian government’s stimulus package is being scaled back, and ultimately will be ending faster than any other package, a classic mistake, according to Keynes. Therefore, Canada’s economy, while having fared better during the actual recession, will limp along while the US economy quickly recovers in 2010.

North Korea continues Sabre Rattling

North Korea launched a few more short-range missiles today. In what is another provocative act in a string of provocative acts (rocket launch under the guise of launching a space satellite, nuclear test, withdrawal from the 6 party talks, withdrawing from the 1953 armistice agreement with South Korea), North Korea sent the world a resounding message: pay attention to me!

Now, I’m sure many people think that North Korea is an ‘irrational’ actor, but I beg to differ. North Korea is playing the only game it knows how, and is doing it well. Not only has the DPRK gotten away with testing two nuclear devices, but it continues to flout international law and security council resolutions, and there’s also the question of proliferation. (Although I’d hate to be the recipient of North Korean nuclear or missile technology – not exactly worth the cost. Better to get it from someone a bit more reliable!)

So what more will North Korea get? I’m willing to bet that they’re not done provoking the US – I’d wager there’ll be a few more longer-range missile tests, and possibly another nuclear test. (My best guess as to when? G8 leaders’ summit coming up next week.)

The question really becomes what does North Korea want. The answer is simple: to be recognized as a nuclear state. Will North Korea get what it is gambling everything for, or will it all blow up in its face?

2009′s Failed States Index

I love this time of year, when Foreign Policy magazine releases its failed states index. It is probably the best index out there, and possibly the most well-read warning of state failure. A few highlights:

- much of the index this year focused on how fragile states will be effected by the global economic crisis (my favourites include Pakistan, Sudan and Iran)
- This year they added an interactive map that helps you see, in a nutshell, how bad the situation is in any part of the world.
- What did they miss? Mexico. Mexico is the state that is quietly failing, but doesn’t get talked about very much. I’m working on an article for a journal on the subject, so I might share a few of my findings here, because I think they need to be said.

Iranian Revolution Redux?

There’s been a fair bit of media discussion the “new” Iranian revolution – I think it’s important to keep a few things in mind:

- Iran, while having democratic elections for president, is controlled by a small cadre of people who firmly control the security architecture
- Any changes that might take place in Iran are likely to be slow in coming
- Any interference from the US will be played up by Ahmadinejad and his supporters and will be counterproductive

However, the thing that worries me is that Iran is more volatile now than ever before. The Iranians looking to acquire nuclear weapons could see these demonstrations as a threat and step up their game for two reasons: it’s a popular move that will support the regime, or in case (as they might see it), western powers think now is a good time for some ‘interference’.

Either way, it throws a wrench into the ‘nuclear Iran’ scenarios.

LTTE: Where next?

As the war in Sri Lanka draws to a close, a new chapter opens for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Their struggle will evolve from one fighting for a Tamil homeland to something different, but they are unlikely to disappear, even if the government of Sri Lanka succeeds in re-taking all of the rebel’s territory.

Take Tuesday’s attack: the LTTE will likely continue to use terrorism as a tactic, and may in fact evolve into an entirely terrorist organization, instead of the ethno-nationalist separatist group that some describe them as.

The one thing that the LTTE has not done (for the most part) is execute terrorist attacks on foreign soil. However, as the situation gets more dire for them, they may in fact be motivated to start executing international terrorist attacks in order to gain support for their cause. Likely targets? India, Sri Lanka, and major supporting nations – among which Canada could be ranked.